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Online Military Brief – Israel vs Hamas

2023 Gaza Prep

#Israel vs #Hamas – good OPEWI – Europe’s War Institute discussion with general Erhard Bühler and professor Alexis VAHLAS on what the fight in Gaza means for Europe. Some highlights (partly based on the data gathered):

1/ Israel has a limited time window to achieve its military aim of “totally destroying Hamas”. Several factors may curtail that stated ambition: US fatigue, West Bank tensions provoked by Hamas, a third regional or world conflict which may, this time, destabilize geopolitical balances.

2/ Hamas has successfully forced Palestine back in diplomatic talks, after twenty years of hibernation. That being said, the two-state solution appears unfeasible in 2023 as both sides have radicalized their postures: Israeli settlers multiplying in the West Bank, Palestinians leaning towards jihadist tactics.

3/ Once the Israeli army retreats from Gaza, a humanitarian operation is very likely. As NATO is not fully trusted in the region, it is also likely that the EU will play a decisive role. The latter’s experience in post-conflict scenarios, its direct interests and its local legitimacy should make it a leading actor under the right UN auspices.