Can we anticipate in the 21st century?

The author, Michael Benhamou, is the Executive Director of OPEWI. Formerly, he served as a Political Advisor for NATO and EU operations.

This analysis was originally prepared by association Focillon – a global gathering of social scientists.

September 2022 – French bank Société Générale asked us this query: is there such a thing as anticipation in our century?

To answer this, we’ve divided our historical investigation into five blocks: energy, climate, mentalities, science and governance. All factors indicated that our era resembles the turbulent 3rd/4th century (CE) waters when climate changes, diseases and minerals scarcity provoked the fall of the Roman Empire.

Main difference with Antiquity though: we have a much stronger science. Romans also fell because of an inability to innovate…

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Image: Focillon ownership